A new report has sparked a lot of debate on campuses and online spaces. According to political scientist Eric Kaufmann, drops in transgender identification are being seen among U.S. college students for the first time in several years. His study suggests that fewer young people now identify as transgender, nonbinary, or queer compared to 2023. The finding has raised questions about what’s really changing in youth culture and whether this shift will last or fade away.
Some media outlets have described it as a kind of cultural correction, while others see it as part of a bigger story about how social pressures, politics, and even survey methods influence how people define themselves. The result is a mix of views that show just how complicated modern identity really is.
The Report That Started the Discussion
Kaufmann’s recent analysis, published through the Center for Heterodox Studies, looks at college survey data from 2022 to 2025. He claims there’s been a clear decline in gender diversity among younger students. The report also connects this decrease to better mental health on campuses, saying that as the number of students identifying as transgender or queer goes down, reports of depression and anxiety are also a bit lower.
Outlets like Deseret News and Newsweek quickly picked up the findings. They suggested that maybe young people are rethinking labels or just feel less need to define themselves publicly. Newsweek even summarized it by saying young Americans are identifying as heterosexual again.
But these ideas are not without criticism. Some researchers argue that the data Kaufmann used might not represent all students fairly, which could make it seem like transgender identification drops are happening when it might actually be a matter of sample bias.
What The Numbers Really Show
Kaufmann’s work relies mostly on FIRE’s (Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression) campus surveys, which ask students about free speech and social issues. While useful, they’re not nationally representative. Critics, including analysts cited by them.us, said that the original data were unweighted, meaning certain student groups who respond more often, like conservative students, might have influenced the results.
When researchers adjusted those numbers to match the real makeup of the student population, the drop mostly disappeared. In some cases, fewer students identifying as transgender actually turned into a small increase. That makes it hard to say whether there’s a real shift or just a statistical fluke.
Still, Kaufmann stands by his results. He says that even if the surveys aren’t perfect, they still show a possible direction. But without national data, no one can say for sure if there is a real drop in transgender identification or just a temporary dip in a few places.
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National Surveys Tell Another Story
While some college surveys show a decrease, national data tells a different story. Gallup’s 2025 report showed that 9.3 percent of U.S. adults identified as LGBTQ+ in 2024, the highest number ever recorded. Young adults remain the most likely to identify as part of the LGBTQ+ community, with bisexual identity being the most common.
These findings suggest that any shift in LGBTQ+ identification among college students hasn’t yet changed the overall national trend. Gallup’s data, which goes back more than a decade, still shows growth instead of decline.
So it’s possible that both things are true. Some campuses might be seeing short-term drops in gender diversity, while the larger population keeps growing in LGBTQ+ visibility. The contrast reminds us that changing gender identity trends depend a lot on context and the methods used to measure them.
Why Measuring Identity Is Complicated
Gender and sexuality are very personal, and surveys can only capture so much. Researchers say that even small differences in how questions are worded can change answers. When surveys include more inclusive options, like genderfluid, queer, or two-spirit, more people identify outside of traditional categories.
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Context plays a big role, too. Some students might not label themselves publicly because of social pressure or fear of criticism. Others might simply feel that how they see themselves has changed over time. That kind of fluidity is natural, but it makes tracking long-term trends difficult.
Because of these challenges, experts say that the drop in transgender identification on a few campuses shouldn’t automatically be seen as proof of a cultural shift. They might just reflect differences in comfort levels or the current political mood.
The Mental Health Debate
Kaufmann’s report also connects the decline in gender identity to better mental health. It suggests that as fewer students identify as transgender or queer, rates of anxiety and depression have slightly gone down.
But many mental health experts don’t agree with that interpretation. Data from The Trevor Project and other research groups show that LGBTQ+ youth still face high levels of stress and emotional distress. This is especially true in states where new laws limit gender-affirming care or restrict discussions of gender identity in schools.
The truth probably depends on which group you look at. Surveys of all students may show improvements in general well-being, but LGBTQ-specific studies often show the opposite. This means that averages can sometimes hide the struggles of smaller, more vulnerable groups.
The Social and Political Context
Between 2023 and 2025, gender identity became a big topic in politics and culture. Many states passed or debated laws about sports participation, pronoun use, and gender-affirming care.
In that kind of environment, some students may feel less safe being open about their gender. Others may prefer to stay quiet to avoid unwanted attention. This might explain why there’s a short-term drop in visible identities, even if people’s internal sense of gender stays the same.
At the same time, representation continues to grow in media and workplaces. More public figures now openly identify as LGBTQ+, which encourages acceptance. The mix of visibility and backlash makes it harder to draw simple conclusions about why transgender identification drops in some areas while rising in others.
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Critics Question The Interpretation
Not everyone agrees with Kaufmann’s take. Analysts interviewed by them.us criticized the study’s design and how it was presented. They said it could be used to support political narratives rather than inform honest discussion. They also pointed out that calling small changes a decline or collapse exaggerates the results.
Still, other researchers think it’s fair to study shifts in how people identify. They argue that culture changes over time, and every generation revisits how it understands gender and sexuality. So even if the data are debated, asking the question is valuable.
Both sides agree that clear and representative data are crucial. Without it, studies can easily be misread or weaponized, turning careful research into political talking points.
What To Watch For Next
Experts are waiting for more evidence. Gallup, the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey, and the UCLA Williams Institute will all release new reports soon. If they confirm a decrease, it might suggest a real adjustment in how young people think about gender. But if the numbers continue to rise, it would show that the recent college data reflected only a brief change.
Either way, these findings have opened an important conversation. They show how social attitudes shift and how those changes affect self-expression.
Closing Thoughts
The recent claims that transgender identification has dropped among college students have drawn both curiosity and criticism. Kaufmann’s report points to possible cultural change, but broader data, like Gallup’s, still show growth in LGBTQ+ identification.
Both sides have valid points. College culture and national attitudes don’t always move in the same direction. Identity is flexible, personal, and shaped by many factors.
As more data becomes available, it’s important to stay focused on facts, not politics. Understanding these patterns with care can help create more supportive environments for all students, whether they identify as transgender, cisgender, or somewhere in between.
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